BTC Holder Ratio Signals Market Shift

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Wedson found that realized capital is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders while short-term speculative participation remains relatively low.

Bitcoin dipped below $63,000 yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting today but has recovered well over a grand since then.

Prominent analyst Joao Wedson identified on-chain data that suggests BTC is nearing a historically significant accumulation zone.

Long-Term Holders Take Control
In his latest tweet, Wedson explained that he divided the Long-Term Holder Realized Cap by the Short-Term Holder Realized Cap to track where the market’s realized capital is concentrated. According to the Alphractal founder, Bitcoin formed major price bottoms on two previous occasions when this ratio moved above 4. The metric currently stands at 3.9, which means the market is approaching that historically important threshold.

The reading indicates that a much larger share of realized capital is now held by Long-Term Holders than by Short-Term Holders, which demonstrates a shift toward investors with stronger conviction while short-term speculative participation remains relatively limited.

Wedson added that this type of market structure has previously emerged during “advanced” accumulation phases, when weaker hands exit, and ownership moves to long-term investors. Alphractal stated,

“It does not confirm that the exact bottom is already in. However, it shows that Bitcoin is approaching a zone that previously appeared during major cycle-bottom formations.”

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