Bitcoin Bull Run May Follow US Midterms

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Bitcoin has historically struggled before US midterms, with past recoveries beginning once election uncertainty faded.

Bitcoin’s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.

Recurring Election Cycle Patterns

Wedson compared Bitcoin’s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote. In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.

He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.

“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” wrote the analyst.

According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.

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