Bitcoin Eyes $42K–$44K Zone as Potential Market Bottom

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Strategy's valuation metrics are being used as an early warning signal for BTC, with the current mNAV near levels seen in 2022.

Jiang Zhuoer, co-founder of BTC.TOP mining pool, on June 25 published a long-term prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 sometime in the October-to-December 2026 window.

Jiang made the call while the OG cryptocurrency was trading near $62,000, down about 51% from its all-time high above $126,000, which was set in October 2025.

MSTR Sentiment May Lead to the Next Bitcoin Bottom
According to the miner, Strategy’s mNAV ratio, which compares its share price with the value of its BTC holdings per share, has entered the same range seen during the previous bear market. An mNAV reading above 1 suggests that investors are paying a premium, while a figure below 1 means there’s pessimism brewing.

Per Jiang’s assessment, that metric has fallen to 0.72, very close to the 0.70 level recorded in May 2022. He argued that the current reading may signal a sentiment low for Strategy investors, although not necessarily for Bitcoin itself.

When mNAV bottomed in May 2022, as the analyst explained, BTC was trading near $31,000 and went on to reach a cycle low six months later when it dropped to around $15,000. If that same lag applies now, Jiang postulated that the flagship crypto will reach a low in Q4 2026, with prices falling to roughly $42,000 to $44,000.

His prediction also relied on a 4-year market model that compares Bitcoin’s long-term price swings to a bouncing ball, where each bounce results in the loss of amplitude. According to the model, as BTC’s total market cap grows, its volatility naturally decreases cycle by cycle.

Strategy MSTR stock recently fell to its lowest level since February 2024, and was changing hands at just above $94 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the company’s preferred STRC shares have also been trading below their par value of $100, with data from the firm showing it stood at $80.84, and this, Jiang says, has also contributed to the current market stress, with other analysts suggesting it could pressure Strategy to sell some of its Bitcoin.

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