Bitcoin Faces 25–80% Crash in Bear Case

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According to analysts, BTC could drop to $10,000 in case of a complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or a full regional war.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent speech on the Iran conflict sent Bitcoin (BTC) tumbling from $69,000 to below $67,000, erasing gains made in the previous session as markets repriced the odds of a prolonged war.

XWIN Research Japan has released a bearish report that says the sell-off wasn’t just a reaction to headlines; it showed that there are serious problems with the structure of Bitcoin’s derivatives market that could cause prices to drop by as much as 80% in the worst case.

What Trump’s Speech Changed, and Why It Matters for BTC
Markets had been expecting Trump to signal a wind-down of the conflict. Instead, he said the situation would get worse over the next two to three weeks.

Investors responded by selling. The S&P 500 and the Dow both fell, the former closing down 0.23% and the latter 0.39%. Asian markets were also hit, with South Korea’s KOSPI losing 4.2%. Additionally, the price of oil went up 11.41% to $111 a barrel, and the value of the U.S. dollar went up.

According to XWIN, all of that is bad news for Bitcoin, because when oil rises, inflation expectations go up, and when the dollar strengthens, money becomes tighter globally. Both conditions tend to push investors away from risk assets like crypto.

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