Staircase-Style Trend Emerging in Bitcoin Market

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Bitcoin’s cycle may no longer be parabolic.

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has once again slipped below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA365), which has raised questions about whether the current cycle is deviating from historical norms.

A new report now suggests that the market is evolving into a “staircase-like” bull cycle defined by gradual corrections.

Has Bitcoin Outgrown Parabolic Runs?
Traditionally, during bull markets, MVRV tends to stay above this level except in cases of extreme “Black Swan” events. This trend largely held until 2024, when the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows appeared to alter market dynamics.

That year, MVRV dipped under SMA365 twice, but each time rebounded quickly and coincided with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. CryptoQuant found that the market is now facing a third test of this pattern. Analysts note that today’s US inflation data supports expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of 2025, which is a dovish outlook that could provide the catalyst for MVRV to reclaim higher ground.

If history repeats, this could set the stage for fresh highs before year-end. Market observers suggest that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has pivoted toward a more “staircase-like” structure, with measured advances and corrections, rather than the sharp parabolic rallies seen in past cycles.

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