Bitcoin’s Golden Cross: Rally Ahead?

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Most recent Bitcoin golden crosses have triggered major rallies, though not without notable failures like the February 2020 bull trap.

Bitcoin is nearing a golden cross that led to 45–60% price rallies in the recent past.

Fundamentals like rising M2 supply and easing trade tensions support a bullish outlook.

Bearish divergence and overbought conditions show there’s still a risk of BTC falling below $100,000.

Bitcoin will likely confirm a “golden cross” on its daily chart by the end of May, a technical pattern whose occurrences in recent years often preceded rallies.

Previous golden crosses led to 45-60% BTC price rallies
As of May 20, Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA; the red wave) was eyeing a close above its 200-day SMA (the blue wave) for the first time since October 2024, forming a golden cross.

Previously, BTC price had gained over 60%, with the reelection of Donald Trump as the US president playing a key role.

In October 2023, the golden cross was followed by a 45% BTC price rally, helped by Bitcoin ETF euphoria. September 2021 saw 50% gains in BTC price after painting a similar SMA crossover.

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